Egypt’s shifting sands towards Israel and Iran

The Gaza war has put a significant dent in Egyptian-Israeli relations and raised real questions about the future of their 1979 peace treaty. Egypt, understanding Israel’s need to respond to Hamas’ October 7 attack, adopted what observers have called a measured approach, particularly compared to other regional countries like Turkey and Jordan. But opinion in Cairo is that this restraint was not appreciated, nor have Egyptian sensitivities around Rafah and the Philadelphi Corridor been considered by Israel. Egypt’s joining the ICJ case against Israel provided another strong signal of Cairo’s frustration. Despite decades of peace mistrust between Egypt and Israel is now at an unprecedented level.  

In a recent interview with the Media Line, Mohamed Saad Khiralla, an exiled Egyptian analyst and member of PEN Sweden, said that Egypt’s official cordial posture masks its internal tone. “At the official level, the Egyptian regime feigned cordiality with Israel. But since the war began, its media and institutions have consistently broadcast antagonism,” he said. “Now, Egyptians are openly debating the prospect of future confrontation, particularly as Cairo eyes new arms purchases from China, North Korea, and others and as military activity intensifies in the Sinai.” 

So where does Iran fit into this picture?  The Israel Iran war came at a time when Egypt and Iran were trying to kick start a new phase in their relations following decades of tensions.  Iran has opposed the 1979 Egyptian-Israeli peace treaty and even applauded the assassination of Anwar Sadat, the Egyptian leader who signed this treaty in 1981, going as far as to name a street after Sadat’s assassin in its capital. Tehran however recently changed the name of that street, viewed as a sign of goodwill to Egypt, part of a series of measures over the last few years to reengage with the Islamic Republic.

 Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi has visited Cairo twice in the last nine months, the most recent coming as Egypt hoped to play a role in trying to end the deadlock between Iran and the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). Perhaps more interesting was that, according to a Lebanese expert, Ali Hamiya, cited by The New Arab media outlet, Araghchi reportedly provided some intelligence documents Iran had acquired, suggesting an Israeli plan to invade Sinai, the Egyptian territory that shares borders with Israel and Gaza. While this has not been corroborated it might explain last month’s military activity by Egypt, with sources telling the National News outlet, ‘while the Egyptian military's combat units have been put on high alert nationwide, those deployed in the Sinai Peninsula were ordered to go on maximum alert’.

Or was it merely Iran just trying to stir the pot with Israel- and just days after Araghchi’s visit to Cairo, Isarel ended up bombing Iran’s nuclear facilities with American help.

While most analysts agree that a war between Egypt and Isreal is unlikely, the situation has been described as going from a ‘cold peace’ to a ‘cold war’, according to one Israeli media outlet. But, by default, the two countries remain interconnected with the U.S. over the future of Gaza. What is clearer more than ever, however, is that Egypt has decided to take a more pragmatic approach to it’s hegemony.

*Kieran Baker is an Emmy award winning journalist who has started up various networks including Al Jazeera English, Bloomberg TV Africa and TRT World.