The long goodbye: The fading fortunes of the Polisario Front

The Polisario Front, once a credible national liberation movement, is increasingly marginalized on the global stage. Its decades-long struggle for independence in Western Sahara—frozen in stalemate since 1991—has not merely stalled— it is unraveling. In the past few years, the group has suffered diplomatic losses, internal defections, and reputational damage linked to allegations of criminality and terrorism.

The Front’s 2020 announcement that it was ending its ceasefire with Morocco briefly suggested a new phase in the conflict. Yet its return to arms has amounted to little, given the group’s limited military capacity and Morocco’s entrenched control, reinforced by drones and international backing.

Diplomatic momentum has tilted sharply toward Rabat. America’s 2020 recognition of Moroccan sovereignty, brokered in return for normalizing ties with Israel, set the tone. France and Spain have since endorsed Morocco’s autonomy plan while Arab states and even former African allies have fallen in line—or fallen silent.

Among the Sahrawi community, the Polisario faces growing discontent. Defections, particularly among younger Sahrawis frustrated with the group’s ossified leadership and strategic drift, signal deeper fractures that threaten its cohesion and credibility.

These losses are compounded by damage to the Polisario’s reputation. Moroccan intelligence services have alleged that over 100 former or current Polisario members are active in jihadist groups such as Al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb. Adnan Abu Walid al-Sahrawi, who led the Islamic State in the Greater Sahara until his death in 2021, reportedly trained in Polisario-run camps. Such associations—however tenuous—are politically toxic, reinforcing concerns that parts of the group have drifted into smuggling and armed criminality across the Sahel. Several Moroccan-aligned governments are now lobbying to have the Polisario formally listed as a terrorist organization.

Equally damaging are allegations of Iranian support. In 2018, Morocco severed diplomatic ties with Tehran, accusing it of using its embassy in Algiers and Hezbollah operatives to arm and train the Polisario. Iran denies the accusations, but the narrative has gained traction—particularly as Gulf states align with Rabat and view Hezbollah’s regional ambitions with mounting suspicion.

Syria, a peripheral but consistent supporter, offered the Polisario, both diplomatic recognition and a link to Tehran. With the fall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime, that conduit is now closed.

With its leadership ageing, its alliances fraying, and its internal credibility under question, the Polisario risks becoming a fossil of Cold War-era politics. It is fighting a cause the rest of the world has largely left behind. Without a clear path to victory, international leverage, or the means to pressure Morocco, its influence is waning. The longer this drags on, the more likely it is that the Polisario will not be remembered as a movement defeated, but simply one overtaken by history.

*Lonzo Cook is a journalist and writer. He spent two decades at CNN in a series of senior editorial and management roles including leading breaking news operations across Asia, the Middle East and Latin America. He currently works as a senior communications strategist, partnering with corporations and executives to develop integrated communication strategies to connect with audiences in our fast paced, ever changing engagement landscape.